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How long did it take our market to recover? | Historical price drops in the Lower Mainland

Listings since the dip of available product inventory in the market are up 3100 since the start of the year, tons of new listings available. Interest rates are on the rise and it's going to get more expensive to own property than it has been in years for both current homeowners and home buyers. It's going to cost them more to borrow the same amount of money and they're going to be able to afford less. While sales are slightly up since the crazy pandemonium since the beginning of the year, there is no doubt that there are some factors in the market that are at hand that are starting to slow the real estate market. The natural response from almost every buyer that we come across is maybe I should just wait.

 And this post is all about today addressing should you wait? What happened in the past when we saw recent highs? How did the market perform and how long did it take to get back to higher levels than when it started to soften? If you're interested in seeing all that, this is definitely the post for you. The big question, should we wait to buy? Okay, let's go.

 You may be feeling a little bit like a fortune teller thinking that, you know what is going to happen with the market. You might be one of those home buyers. And I always say you're sitting in a basement suite somewhere. Usually it's probably dark in there, but you think the market is going to crash. That's okay, no problem with that.

 Nonetheless, you are gambling, thinking that the market is going to change and it's going to significantly come down. That's all it really is, to be honest with you, is gambling. Nobody knows, I don't know. Economists don't know, you don't know, nobody knows. But there's no doubt that you can see things changing.

 So if you're thinking maybe I should wait to buy because I might be able to get a little bit of a better deal than I can today on buying a condo, townhouse or detached home in maybe Surrey, Langley, Cloverdale, White Rock, wherever it might be. I thought it'd be really fun to show some of the previous market peaks that we've experienced in the Fraser Valley and Vancouver real estate markets and how the market responded. How long did it take for prices to get back to equal to or higher than levels of when the so called peak was? And what does that really look like? Since I've been a realtor, I have been able to live through some pretty major events in the real estate market.

 I started in 2007, which of course, was the big financial crisis that started in 2007. So that was pretty interesting. There was also the foreign buyer rush of 2015 and 2016, and then subsequently BC announced the foreign buyers tax, which didn't bode well for the market. And then, of course, if I didn't mention the all important stress test that kicked in into full gear in 2018 and we started seeing the effects after all the rate holds were done in the spring of 2018, that was a pretty big event that affected people's affordability like crazy because they essentially lost about 15% to 20% of their purchasing power overnight. So that wasn't good either.

 All of these events had pretty significant effects on our real estate market. And I want to show you exactly how long it took our market to recover from these events. The financial crash is the first one, and it's largely kind of touted that. The financial crash started in December of 2007, but we got a pretty strong banking system here in Canada, so we didn't really start seeing the effects of this really global meltdown until about June of 2008. It took us almost 5 years to recover from the financial crash in terms of what people might have paid at the complete peak versus what they could have paid within that next 5 years.

 They essentially would have got a little bit of a lower price. Now, the market bottom of the financial crash from the peak until the bottom was 17 months, jumping into the BC foreign buyers tax, which really affected the lower mainland primarily at the time. This was done in August of 2016. In this case, it only took 6 months in the Fraser Valley for home prices to start eclipsing and getting more expensive than what they were at the very peak when that change took place. And the bottom was only 4 months after the announcement.

 You can see that this didn't have quite the impact on prices that people thought it would be. Because I got a secret for you. It wasn't really foreign buyers causing the problem. If you believe everything the news tells you, then you probably think I'm wrong. But it wasn't that.

 That's for another post, though. And no, I'm not saying it's fake news. I'm just saying it was stopped to get your attention headlines and we'll talk about that at the end. The last one, of course, is the stress test. Now, this was Canada wide.

 This was a pretty big deal. And this had impacts on the Canadian real estate market as a whole. So in about early 2018, it was introduced. It was actually the start of the year of 2018. And we didn't really start to see the effects until people's rate holds started to expire.

 So a rate hold where you're guaranteed a certain rate that usually is good for anywhere between 90 to 120 days. So come May and June of 2018, we start to see the impacts of this hit the market. It took 31 months, or about 2.5 years, for the market to fully recover to the prices that we had seen just before that change had come in. And it was 17 months until we saw the bottom of that market. And it's interesting because some of them were both government intervention and some had much more significant impacts than others.

 We're obviously going into an area where we're really just dealing with rate hikes. So it'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

 I'm going to tell you something. By the time you start reading any headline about real estate, it's already too late. Once the public knows, once the media knows, once they start shouting it from the rooftops, the prices are already on their way back up. It happens every single time. Don't be the real loser of the changing real estate market.

 if you're a home seller, be sure to pick up a copy of 4 ways to Increase Your Home's Value by up to 5% in only a weekend. It's got must have information there to help you maximize your sale price. And for any of you first time buyers out there, we got one for you too. 6 things first time home buyers screw up every single time and how to avoid doing so.

 It's a good one too. You're going to definitely want to pick it up. And lastly, for anybody that's generally thinking of doing anything with real estate in the Surrey BC and surrounding areas, you've got a link down there in my calendar. Make use of me. I am a real person.

 You can book some time and chat on the phone with me. Fill in on your situation and I'll give you some advice on what I think might be best for you. That's it for this video, everybody. I would love to hear your comments. Leave them down below.

 Let us know what you think is going to happen, what you think of the content we've been providing and what content you might want to see moving forward. We're here for you. We appreciate you watching and we'll look forward to seeing you next time. See you then.

 Bye.

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The Germyn Group
Darin Germyn PREC* & Adam Howsam
Macdonald Realty LTD
homes@germyn.ca | 604-542-2444 | germyn.ca
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