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The market has PEAKED! | Surrey REALTOR® shows you what you won't hear on the news

So this is your warning. If you have been thinking of selling your home, the Market is changing. It's not like what it used to be before, and all of the stories that you've heard leading up to today aren’t applicable anymore. If you've thought about selling your home, you definitely want to watch this video because it’s going to give you all the insight as to what is going on and why the market is changing.

So here's the scoop. I feel like we might be at the peak of the market. I know that is a huge claim and one that needs to be backed up. So I'm going to give you a few reasons why I believe if you're thinking of selling your home, now is the time. My team and I are fortunate to do fairly big numbers of transactions each year and we also have lots of colleagues in the industry in and around us that do lots of transactions as well. The reason this is important is because we typically start to see the trends of the market before they actually really become trends. 

By the time that the news is reporting a change in the Fraser Valley real estate market or the Surrey real estate market, we've already seen it, we've already felt it, and we already knew about it. We've also seen a market like this before, back in 2008 and again in 2015 and 16 where it felt like another home was never going to be built and buyers were buying them just like that. They thought they were never going to find a house. So why do I say that I believe that a peak is either here or very close? Well, there's a lot of stories that either I can tell or my good friends who help sell a lot of real estate in the area to tell you as well, that really point to the market maybe at a peak.

First thing is that we are starting to see numbers on homes that are absolutely insane. Insane! This means that there are buyers out there who have chosen to write prices on things like condominiums, townhomes, or detached homes that are completely well and above what the most recent sales have been. And also in a very short period of time, we're talking about numbers that might be 10 to 15% higher than the most recent sale, only a week or two previous. And that is completely unsustainable, number one. But the numbers really just do not make sense whatsoever. So we've got these numbers that are way off the comparables with just insane numbers that are shocking the entire real estate community. That's the first thing. 

The second thing that helps me believe that the market is changing is the amount of listings that are not coming to the market. For the first time in years that I can remember, we are seeing multiple listings come to the market each and every day that are direct, comparables and competitors to the listings that we are bringing up. This means that some of the listings coming to market are no longer the only game in town and buyers are starting to have options. When buyers start to have options, that means that they don’t need you, the seller, quite as much as they used to. You may not be the most popular kid in class anymore. You may not be the prettiest girl as the dance. There is other options out there for these buyers to go explore and that means they don't always need to pay these crazy amounts.

Next, my phone is ringing off the hook from our great clients calling us, being so surprised about hearing some of these wild sale prices that are happening in their neighbourhood or in their strata buildings. Naturally, they all want to know if that’s what their home is worth. Could they get that number today? And should they consider selling because the numbers are so high? Now, if that's happening to us and our clients, that's happening everywhere and anecdotally all my friends that sell lots and lots of real estate too are having the same conversations. We've also seen the herd really start to thin out. And I'll explain what this means.

Back earlier on in the pandemic when the prices were really starting to ramp up, we were having open houses or days of showing where we would have dozens and dozens and dozens of home buyers lined up waiting to get into a property that was for sale. And this was largely because the inventory was so short. As property values have gone up and we start to see more inventory come onto the market, we've noticed that the herd has thinned quite substantially. This means that new listings that might have had 50 to 100 showings at some point earlier in the pandemic are now getting maybe 10, 15 or 20 showings over the entire course of the weekend. So not only are we starting to see less showings, but we're also starting to see that if it's not easy for other Realtors to show to their clients or for somebody that doesn't have a Realtor to get in and access the property, they plain just don't show up. They'll go look at some of the other options. And if they missed the big offer presentation on the start of the next week, they're okay with that. 

Not only all this, we are starting to see a lot of unrepresented buyers completely give up. And even buyers that are working with real estate professionals give up because they are tired. They are tired of these prices. They are tired of the market. They are tired of losing. And something what we call in the industry, buyer fatigue is setting in heavy, if it hasn't already set in completely already. And one of the last telltale signs that the market is probably at a peak is really the amount of offers that we’re seeing on the properties that we list for sale.

Now, you need to forget about those homes that are listed so far under their value that you're hearing stories about 35 offers on them. Pricing a $2 million property for $1.7 million is just plain silly. And anybody that's claiming to sell a home for $400,000 over asking price means that home is probably under priced by $375,000 to begin with. So forget about all that. The question is, are we seeing these properties sell for a value that is substantially higher than what they should be on average? I'm not talking about these outliers where at the start of the video we're talking about these insane prices that never made sense and never will make sense. I'm talking about the average home instead of earlier on as a pandemic where we might have 10, 15, 20, 30 offers. I think our most was 31 at one point. Now what you're starting to see is maybe 3, maybe 4, maybe 2. 

And in some cases, when we're looking for our buyers and inquiry on other properties, some of these Realtors are getting none. That means nobody showed up to the offer presentation date. With looming interest rate hikes coming very soon, buyer fatigue, and these incredible purchase prices that we have been seeing, including the run up in the market in the last 18 months, we all know that it can't last forever. And this very well may be the peak of the market. We've seen this before and we’re starting to see it again.

So there you have it, guys. That's the experience of what’s happening in the market out there. Leave us a comment below. And whether you are one of the many Realtors that watch our videos or a member of the public, let us know what you think is happening or if it's going to happen maybe you've got a different perspective that we don't see. As always thanks for watching at the Germyn Group, we know you only got one chance to buy or sell your next home so we’re here to help you get it right.

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The Germyn Group

Darin Germyn PREC* & Adam Howsam

Macdonald Realty LTD

homes@germyn.ca | 604-542-2444 | www.germyn.ca

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