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Will the Canadian real estate market move DOWN as fast as it went UP?

We did a post about the three major price corrections we have seen in the lower mainland market over the course of the last 15 years. And it generated a ton of comments, a ton of buzz, and a lot of you had some questions that I thought I could address. One of the bigger questions that came from the phone calls, the replies in the video and direct email messages was "Why does the market seem to move down slower than it does go up?" We're coming out of a market place that it was bananas. If you watched my videos, you know how crazy it was and how quickly the numbers were escalating month over month for property values in the Surrey area and anywhere surrounding basically in the Lower Mainland. This video today is all about why the market tends to move down slower than it does when it goes up. If you're someone that is looking to either buy or sell a home, this might help set your expectation about what you can expect moving forward in the coming months so you can be better prepared if that's what you're looking for, that's what you're here for.

Join me. Let's get going. What's good, everybody? It's Darin Germyn from the Germyn Group where we know you've only got one chance to either buy or sell your next home. So we're here to help you get it right. Make sure you check out some of our free PDFs in the description for both home buyers and home sellers, all designed to help you be more successful. All right. So I was hesitant to use the "C-word" in this video because we love to throw it around in the lower mainland. When we talk about real estate, can you guess what that word is? CRASH.

Market crash. Market crash. We love to throw it around. You know, we love to throw it around the most is people who don't own homes and love to think that the market is going to crash. That's who loves to say it the most, and the media. But anyways, I wanted to avoid the word, but I'm going to use it. And this is the reason why. What the hell is a crash? What is a market crash? What does that represent? What kind of numbers do we have to see in terms of a changing price to represent what many people would reference as a market crash? Let me shine some light on this, maybe a little bit better. The prices went up generally in the B.C. Lower Mainland by roughly about 50% in the course of 2 years. I think we can all agree that it is probably reasonable to suggest that prices could reside. Is that the right word? It can scaled back a little bit from the absolute peaks of the market that we probably saw in and around February or March of 2022.

Now, this will leave people tripping all over themselves, throwing their hands up in the air. But look, if we saw a 50% gain in prices over the course of 2 years and the market recedes by 5%, maybe even 10%, is that really that big of a deal? Probably not. Even for those famous market crashers sitting in their basement suites that are hoping for that market crash. You might hit your 10% mark. You might get that. And that's awesome. And I'm very happy for you. The unfortunate thing is you're missing out on the additional 40% that it gained over the last 2 years. So let's be careful about using the word market crash. Let's call it what in our industry we like to call it an "Adjustment." Of course, it can change. The market doesn't always go up. It fluctuates. Okay, that's out of the way. Let's keep going. So there's a few reasons why the market moves down slower than it goes up. And I'm going to share those with you right now.

Here's the first one. Sellers in a marketplace where the prices are seemingly going down are very reluctant to list. People in British Columbia are very funny about their home prices. And they have this mentality that if I can't get what I used to be able to get, I am not going to sell. I'm $3 short from the top value ever, so I'm not going to do it. People are hesitant to put their places on the market because if they think their detached home in Surrey used to be worth $2 million and now it's worth, let's say, $1,950,000 they just hold off on doing it. They don't put it on the market. This ties in a lot to the very last point I'm going to make, but I'm going to keep rolling here. So let's get to the next one. For the homes that do decide to go on to the market, it's also a little bit of a game of chicken. Of course, no seller wants to reduce their asking price of their home when they're selling it.

They all want to believe that their home is special. "My home is so special syndrome."

Learn and they are convinced that it's more special than everybody else's. And unfortunately, if you think that you're wrong, there is very, very few unique characteristics to most homes, especially when you live in a big community like Surrey or Vancouver or any of the surrounding areas. There are so many factors at play when it comes time for a buyer to pick a new home that even though you might have a new kitchen or you might have a beautiful garden, that might not be important to the majority of the buyers. So if there's other homes available that are characteristically similar in your community, they're still going to go look at those and pick the one that offers the best value. So this game of chicken with sellers that do decide to list their homes kind of has them all watching each other. All the characteristically similar homes are paying attention to each other because they want to see what you're going to do before they do it. If you reduce the value of your home and it ends up selling okay, maybe we'll consider doing that too, because now you just proved that it works.

One of the other reasons that the market moves a lot slower down is kind of because of the buyers as well. Obviously, buyers get a little reluctant to because they think the prices might be a little bit cheaper tomorrow than they are today. And that's fair. But the problem is a lot of them run around and they make really dumb offers, really dumb offers. I am talking about offers that are 10% below the asking price. I am talking about offers that have so many stipulations on them that no sane person being a seller would ever agree to them. Unfortunately, a lot of people get their real estate data and their real estate playbook from watching HGTV, and they are watching shows of people selling homes or buying homes and flipping homes in some small U.S. city where the average price point is $150,000 for a house and the market moves at a snail's pace. We don't live there.

We live in the lower mainland of one of the most beautiful places on the planet to own live, work and play. So properties tend to transact in the Lower Mainland for what they're worth. If the seller wanted to sell their home for 10% under what they listed it for, their strategy would probably be to list it closer to what they actually want to get it done. So if you're a buyer and you're out there and you want to throw these 10% off asking prices on seller's homes, good luck to you. But I wouldn't expect to be overly successful. The last point that I wanted to make is something that I actually discuss with all of my sellers prior to putting their home on the market. And that is simply, are they interested in selling or are they committed to selling? And there's a big difference. You're going to see the bulk of properties that come to the market during a market where the prices seemingly are going down, that are interested in selling, but they're not committed to it. Here's the difference in somebody that is committed to making a move versus somebody that's interested in it, maybe they are having more children and they need more space.

They can't get by in the space that they've got. Maybe for unfortunate reasons. They are separating from a partner and they've got to split up the assets so everybody can go their own way. Even more sad is obviously people pass away and sometimes the family home needs to be sold because grandpa passed and grandma can't take care of the property by herself anymore. And one of the other reasons it's very common in the lower mainland is a job transfer. Somebody who used to work in downtown Vancouver now got transferred to Langley and living in Burnaby isn't the best idea anymore. They don't want to do the commute, so they're going to pick up and they're going to move communities. These are all people who are likely fairly committed to the process. That means they're likely going to price their home in an appropriate price point to get the sale moving. The difference between them and somebody who's interested in moving is just this if they can't get their price, they might not do it. They're not going to make the decisions and the moves in their price that the people that are committed to selling are going to make.

They're going to let the market do its thing. They're going to watch it from the sidelines, and they're going to see how their house reacts to the market and the mortgage changes. Some people will say, If I can't get X amount for my property, I just won't sell it and or I need a certain amount to be able to go buy. The problem with that mentality is nobody cares what you need to buy your next property, especially the buyer that's only on you. So these people sit on the market, they create inventory, and they create these overpriced listings because they're not going to sell. So they're just interested in selling their home, but they're certainly not committed to it, which means they're likely not going to sell their home. So there you have it. These are basically the reasons why the market moves down a lot slower than it goes up. I mentioned a blog at the start of this pos that you're definitely going to want to check out if you are trying to time the market because it goes over the three major price corrections that we've seen in the Fraser Valley area over the last 15 years.

It also talks about how long they lasted and how long it took from the peak of the market to get to the bottom of the market before prices started going back up again. That's it for today's post. Guys, I would love to hear your comments below, so be sure to let us know what you think about this post, what other reasons why you think the prices go down slower than they go up or anything else you'd like to see me do a video on regarding the Surrey, B.C. or Lower Mainland Market. Again, I'm Darin Germyn with the German Group. Don't forget to comment below. Check out the downloads below and we'll look forward to seeing you in the next post. Take care.

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Darin Germyn PREC* & Adam Howsam
Macdonald Realty LTD
homes@germyn.ca | 604-542-2444 | germyn.ca
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